Showing posts with label fragile. Show all posts
Showing posts with label fragile. Show all posts

Monday, 30 March 2020

Get out of your comfort zone!

Antifragile - Things that gain from disorder
Author - Nassim Nicholas Taleb (2012)

This is a thick book written by a mathematician, a hedge fund manager, a derivatives trader, a businessman and polyglot, Nassim Nicholas Taleb. He reads ten languages.

People, like things around us, are of three kinds. They are either fragile which crumple or break with pressure, robust which can withstand stresses or the others which actually grow stronger with strains. These are the anti-fragile. The analogy of a fragile situation is like Damocles in the palace of Dionysius standing precariously under the sword held on by a strand of horsehair. A robust person is like the Phoenix who, despite defeats, come from the ashes to fight back. He can fight, but he is as durable as before, not stronger. The perfect example of an anti-fragility is Hydra, the mythical Greek creature who grew two heads every time one of its heads was cut. In other words, it grew with adversity.

The author suggests that Nature, over the years, has a recurring demonstration on antifragility. Whatever does not kill us will make us stronger. Our civilisation turned us into 'fragilitas'. We have been shielded all through our young age, thanks to immunisation, protection from diseases, helicopter parenting by football mums and or education system which paves a smooth path into adulthood. 


Take the example, the story of Agrippina, Roman Emperor Nero's scandalous mother. Knowing a bit or two about poisoning, after allegedly killing her husband earlier, she suspected Nero of trying to poison her. To make herself resilient against possible poisoning, she started consuming minute and incremental doses. This is the basis of homoeopathic medicine, administrating highly diluted substances for the body to heal itself. Pharmacologists coined the word 'hormesis' when a small dose of harmful material is actually beneficial for the organism, acting as medicine.

Just like how carrying weights increases the bulk and endurance of our muscles, intermittent stresses encourages post-traumatic growths (as opposed to PTSD). Randomness in life also strengthens people against Black Swan events in politics and economics.

Humans are emotional creatures. When the going is good, we are lulled to believe that everything will be alright forever. Like a turkey, we will be thankful to the farmer for feeding promptly, not knowing that come Thanksgiving it will be culled. What makes the species stronger is not peace but adversity.

Modern society reduces variations. Taleb brings in the example of Procrustes who cuts the legs of his travellers or stretching them to fit them into the beds. Modernity is the Procrustean bed that tailor-makes its occupants.

Our ancestors probably were right with their age-old practices which were handed down to them from people before them. After looking at the ups-and-downs of the environment around us, they must have thought, of our grandmothers' remedies and advice that should logically stand the test of time. And we do not need double-blind controlled studies for everything. Especially when it comes from the pharmaceutical companies or physicians who have vested or economic interests in its outcome and usage.

The book goes on to discuss in length into many subjects related to antifragility, making oneself secure in facing adversities. Procrastination may not be all bad. Many creative thinkings materialised when thoughts were pushed aside, let to simmer in the hidden crypts of the brain. Even Darwin's last book took 38 years to be published. Creative juices sometimes flow after long procrastination. Perhaps, it is not wise to practise this during an emergency situation.
Lernean Hydra

Degrees are not the sure way to solves every of world's problems. Many getting their hands dirty in the field would realise that people who work their way up from scratch are more adapt to handling work-related uncertainties. It is like riding a bicycle. No amount of theoretical knowledge of physics can keep a rider balanced on two wheels. We cannot lecture birds on how to fly.

Sometimes people who are passionate about a subject bring more knowledge to a topic than those who are paid to do it.

On a related note, modernity has made us creatures who have to be fed continuously. Our overindulgence in food has strained our internal systems which had caused many metabolic diseases. To reduce overconsumption, intermittent fasting and food deprivation are suggested ways for our body to economically burn fat efficiently.

Everything is gained from volatility, time is a test of unpredictability and innovations come from uncertainties. Intermittent jolts in life will help us faithful to our intended path in life.

"Perhaps being deprived of poison makes us fragile, and the road to robustification starts with a modicum of harm." – Nassim Nicholas Taleb.




Monday, 16 March 2020

Not our crowning glory

COVID-19?
jumping species or wannabe predator??
Is it funny that every time Man thinks that he has it all figured out, Nature (or fate if you like to call it) just jolts him back to reality? Like Will E Coyote and his spanking new latest invention from ACME Corporation, it just falls flat and blows right on his face again and again, and Roadrunner always goes scot-free, scooting off yet again, screeching "beep..beeep!" 

The latest viral scare of COVID-19 (Coronavirus Disease 2019) just opens up our vulnerability. All the so-called foolproof systems that we had installed are just scribblings on the sand - they cannot withstand the test of time. And they are so porous. We thought we had all the arsenal that could not only not annihilate our enemies but ourselves in the process too. All these are useless in combating our electron-microscopic size enemy. We are literally crippled by an unseen offending foe. All the King's horses and the King's men cannot put our peace of mind together at least for now. 

In the 1990s, our leaders were hellbent on embracing globalisation. They argued that we were heading to a borderless world where physical borders were an illusion. Commerce transcended boundaries, and we should welcome it with open arms. No one could live in isolation. Now, see what is happening. Countries are scurrying to close the borders as not only diseases spread like wildfire, refugees who bungled up their own nation are clawing through the immigration gates displaying their victim card. Many have opted for self-isolation to keep their people safe.

Over-dependence on particular countries for supplies and over-concentration of the supply chain from a specific region has not been a smart move after all. It looks like when China sneezes, the whole world may get pneumonia.

The democratisation of flying made travelling no more an activity of the bourgeois. Now, everyone could fly. With it came secondary industries and opening of new regions and tourists attractions. Unfortunately, the concept of open skies also opened the Pandora box of international subversive activities and seamless flow of problems. At the time of writing the tagline of one of the most popular low-cost airlines has changed from 'Everyone can Fly' to 'No one wants to Fly' or 'Nowhere to Fly'.

We thought the world wide web of interconnectivity was going to transform the world into a utopia of a knowledge-based society,  well-informed consumers and broad-thinking creative communities. How naive we were. What we have are fake news of questionable authenticity and a band of fist thumping keyboard warriors who type away their hate speeches under the cloak of anonymity without a thought of the effects of their actions. 

Generations before us grew up without any exchange of physical touch or public display of affection. In some societies, physical touch between unmarriageable kins was frowned upon. With open-mindedness, bodily contacts by handshakes, hugging and pecking became the norm. Come SARS, MERS-CoV and now COVID-19, and we are back to our traditional ways of salutations - bowing and placing of own palms together; fear of transmission of pathogens.

Just a thought...

The mighty Chinese armada used to travel to the four corners of the globe. They are said to have 'discovered' the Americas even before Columbus' alternate route to India. But then everything stopped. The Ming Dynasty decided to opt for a closed-door policy of the world. Even the Japanese kingdoms underwent a similar transformation. Was the spread of disease the reason for this move?

(Nerd Alert: Corona is Latin for Crown. Corona also refers to the gaseous accumulation around the Sun (which looks like a crown enveloping the Sun), mainly around its equator. Did you know that there is a field of study dedicated to studying the Sun called Solar Science (Helioseismology)? The suffix 'seismology' is used here because Solar Scientists principally study it via the oscillations of sound waves (?Om - etc.that are continuously driven and damped by convection near the Sun's surface. One of the puzzling thing about the Sun is that the Corona is hotter than the Sun surface by a factor of 150 to 400. The Corona can reach temperatures of 1 to 3 million Kelvin.)




“Be afraid. Be very afraid.”*